Methodological issues of retrospective surveys for measuring mortality of highly clustered diseases: case study of the 2014-16 Ebola outbreak in Bo District, Sierra Leone.

BACKGROUND: There is a lack of empirical data on design effects (DEFF) for mortality rate for highly clustered data such as with Ebola virus disease (EVD), along with a lack of documentation of methodological limitations and operational utility of mortality estimated from cluster-sampled studies when the DEFF is high. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this paper are to report EVD mortality rate and DEFF estimates, and discuss the methodological limitations of cluster surveys when data are highly clustered such as during an EVD outbreak. METHODS: We analysed the outputs of two independent population-based surveys conducted at the end of the 2014-2016 EVD outbreak in Bo District, Sierra Leone, in urban and rural areas. In each area, 35 clusters of 14 households were selected with probability proportional to population size. We collected information on morbidity, mortality and changes in household composition during the recall period (May 2014 to April 2015). Rates were calculated for all-cause, all-age, under-5 and EVD-specific mortality, respectively, by areas and overall. Crude and adjusted mortality rates were estimated using Poisson regression, accounting for the surveys sample weights and the clustered design. RESULTS: Overall 980 households and 6,522 individuals participated in both surveys. A total of 64 deaths were reported, of which 20 were attributed to EVD. The crude and EVD-specific mortality rates were 0.35/10,000 person-days (95%CI: 0.23-0.52) and 0.12/10,000 person-days (95%CI: 0.05-0.32), respectively. The DEFF for EVD mortality was 5.53, and for non-EVD mortality, it was 1.53. DEFF for EVD-specific mortality was 6.18 in the rural area and 0.58 in the urban area. DEFF for non-EVD-specific mortality was 1.87 in the rural area and 0.44 in the urban area. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrate a high degree of clustering; this contributed to imprecise mortality estimates, which have limited utility when assessing the impact of disease. We provide DEFF estimates that can inform future cluster surveys and discuss design improvements to mitigate the limitations of surveys for highly clustered data.

Main findings: For humanitarian organizations it is imperative to document the methodological limitations of cluster surveys and discuss the utility.Added knowledge: This paper adds new knowledge on cluster surveys for highly clustered data such us in Ebola virus disease.Global health impact of policy and action: We provided empirical estimates and discuss design improvements to inform future study.

Carbon emissions and hospital pathology stewardship: a retrospective cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: As healthcare is responsible for 7% of Australia's carbon emissions, it was recognised that a policy implemented at St George Hospital, Sydney, to reduce non-urgent pathology testing to 2 days per week and, on other days only if essential, would also result in a reduction in carbon emissions. The aim of the study was to measure the impact of this intervention on pathology collections and associated carbon emissions and pathology costs. AIMS: To measure the impact of an intervention to reduce unnecessary testing on pathology collections and associated carbon emissions and pathology costs. METHODS: The difference in the number of pathology collections, carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2 e) for five common blood tests and pathology cost per admission were compared between a 6-month reference period and 6-month intervention period. CO2 e were estimated from published pathology CO2 e impacts. Cost was derived from pathology billing records. Outcomes were modelled using multivariable negative binomial, generalised linear and logistic regression. RESULTS: In total, 24 585 pathology collections in 5695 patients were identified. In adjusted analysis, the rate of collections was lower during the intervention period (rate ratio 0.90; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.86-0.95; P < 0.001). This resulted in a reduction of 53 g CO2 e (95% CI, 24-83 g; P < 0.001) and $22 (95% CI, $9-$34; P = 0.001) in pathology fees per admission. The intervention was estimated to have saved 132 kg CO2 e (95% CI, 59-205 kg) and $53 573 (95% CI, 22 076-85 096). CONCLUSIONS: Reduction in unnecessary hospital pathology collections was associated with both carbon emission and cost savings. Pathology stewardship warrants further study as a potentially scalable, cost-effective and incentivising pathway to lowering healthcare associated greenhouse gas emissions.

Blood Pressure Effects of Canagliflozin and Clinical Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes and Chronic Kidney Disease: Insights From the CREDENCE Trial.

BACKGROUND: People with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease experience a high burden of hypertension, but the magnitude and consistency of blood pressure (BP) lowering with canagliflozin in this population are uncertain. Whether the effects of canagliflozin on kidney and cardiovascular outcomes vary by baseline BP or BP-lowering therapy is also unknown. METHODS: The CREDENCE trial (Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes with Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation) randomized people with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease to canagliflozin or placebo. In a post hoc analysis, we investigated the effect of canagliflozin on systolic BP across subgroups defined by baseline systolic BP, number of BP-lowering drug classes, and history of apparent treatment-resistant hypertension (BP ≥130/80 mm Hg while receiving ≥3 classes of BP-lowering drugs, including a diuretic). We also assessed whether effects on clinical outcomes differed across these subgroups. RESULTS: The trial included 4401 participants, of whom 3361 (76.4%) had baseline systolic BP ≥130 mm Hg, and 1371 (31.2%) had resistant hypertension. By week 3, canagliflozin reduced systolic BP by 3.50 mm Hg (95% CI, -4.27 to -2.72), an effect maintained over the duration of the trial, with similar reductions across BP and BP-lowering therapy subgroups (all P interaction ≥0.05). Canagliflozin also reduced the need for initiation of additional BP-lowering agents during the trial (hazard ratio, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.61-0.75]). The effect of canagliflozin on kidney failure, doubling of serum creatinine, or death caused by kidney or cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.59-0.82]) was consistent across BP and BP-lowering therapy subgroups (all P interaction ≥0.35), as were effects on other key kidney, cardiovascular, and safety outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In people with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease, canagliflozin lowers systolic BP across all BP-defined subgroups and reduces the need for additional BP-lowering agents. These findings support use of canagliflozin for end-organ protection and as an adjunct BP-lowering therapy in people with chronic kidney disease. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02065791.

Ready-to-use food supplement, with or without arginine and citrulline, with daily chloroquine in Tanzanian children with sickle-cell disease: a double-blind, random order crossover trial.

BACKGROUND: Sickle-cell disease increases the risk of malnutrition. Low arginine and nitric oxide bioavailability are implicated in morbidity related to sickle-cell disease. Simple interventions are required, especially in low-income settings. We aimed to test the hypotheses that: (1) supplementary arginine, citrulline, and daily chloroquine increase bioavailable arginine and flow-mediated dilatation (FMD; maximal diameter change; FMDmax%), a measure of nitric oxide-dependent endothelial function; and (2) protein energy supplementation in the form of ready-to-use supplementary food (RUSF) improves the height-for-age and body-mass index-for-age Z-scores in children with sickle-cell disease. METHODS: We performed a double-blind, random order crossover trial with two 4-month intervention periods (each followed by 4-month washout periods) in Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania. We enrolled 119 children from the Muhimbili Sickle Cohort who were aged 8-12 years, naive to hydroxyurea, and had documented HbSS phenotype. Two formulations of RUSF (providing 500 kcal/day) were tested: basic (RUSF-b), with which children also received weekly chloroquine (150 mg or 225 mg chloroquine base, dependent on bodyweight); and vascular (RUSF-v), which was fortified with arginine and citrulline (designed to achieve mean intakes of 0·2 g/kg per day of arginine and 0·1 g/kg per day of citrulline), and with which children received daily chloroquine (maximum 3 mg chloroquine base/kg per day). Children were randomly allocated to receive either RUSF-b first or RUSF-v first and, after a washout period, were then given the other treatment. The primary outcomes in comparing the two RUSF formulations were mean plasma arginine, arginine to ornithine ratio, and arginine to asymmetric dimethylarginine ratio, and mean FMDmax%. The primary outcomes of the combined effect of both RUSF interventions were mean height-for-age Z-score and body-mass index-for-age Z-score. Analyses were done on the eligible intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01718054; and with ISRCTN74331412. FINDINGS: Between Aug 9, 2012, and Feb 26, 2014, 145 children were randomised (71 children to RUSF-v first and 74 children to RUSF-b first) and 119 children were treated, of whom 114 children yielded complete data for all reported endpoints. The ratio of arginine to ornithine (mean of individual differences -8·67%, 95% CI -19·55 to 2·20; p=0·12) and the mean FMDmax% (1·00, -0·47 to 2·47; p=0·18) did not significantly differ between the RUSF-b and RUSF-v treatments. However, the arginine to asymmetric dimethylarginine ratio was significantly increased by RUSF-v compared with RUSF-b (56·26%, 31·13 to 81·38; p<0·0001). In planned analyses that used mixed effects models to estimate the effect of each intervention compared with the participants at baseline or during washout periods, the arginine to asymmetric dimethylarginine ratio increased following both RUSF-v treatment (86%; p<0·0001) and RUSF-b treatment (40%; p<0·0001). However, FMDmax% was higher after treatment with RUSF-v (0·92; p<0·0001) but not RUSF-b (0·39; p=0·22). Following either intervention (RUSF-b and RUSF-v, pooled) body-mass index-for-age Z-score (0·091; p=0·001) and height-for-age Z-score (0·013; p=0·081) increased compared with baseline and washout timepoints. In 83 participants in the treated population, there were 71 adverse events during the intervention, of which 21 (30%) were serious, and 81 adverse events during the washout periods, of which 26 (32%) were serious (p=0·31), including one patient who died in the second washout period. INTERPRETATION: RUSF providing 500 kcal/day results in small weight gains in children with sickle-cell disease. However, even without arginine and citrulline fortification, RUSF seems to ameliorate arginine dysregulation and might improve endothelial function. Long-term studies are required to assess whether these physiological effects translate to improved clinical outcomes and better growth and development in patients with sickle-cell disease. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust.